PMI_TW電子報第七期_專欄文章

Responding Flexibly to Risk~有彈性地回應風險~

Last week I travelled to London by train. We left the station at the scheduled time, followed a fixed route, stopping at a number of predetermined stations on the way, and arrived in London two minutes early. I also recently took a trip on a sailing boat across a small bay. Following a short delay in getting the boat ready, we set off in the right general direction, but were soon driven off course by the wind and tides. We also had to avoid other boats during the crossing, as well as one fast-moving jet-ski which appeared unexpectedly in front of us. Fortunately we were able to reach the other side by adjusting the sails and steering the boat carefully. Our route was certainly not a straight line across the bay, but we arrived at our chosen spot close to the expected time (and we had a very enjoyable time on the way!). Which of these two journeys best represents your project or your business? Are you travelling by train or sailing a boat? Do you follow a set plan and schedule, expecting each milestone to be passed on time, and hoping to arrive at your destination exactly when you planned (or at least reasonably close)? Is your motto “Plan the work, then work the plan”? Or are you affected by events and circumstances (both foreseeable and unplanned) which require corrections en route to ensure that you arrive safely? Most of us recognise that life, businesses and projects do not follow straight lines. In most cases, we can set clear goals, and we are often able to plan a route to get us there. However we know that reality is nearly always more untidy than our neat plans. Risk management is one response to this situation, seeking to look ahead and identify possible sources of variation to the plan, then developing appropriate actions to keep us on course. However even risk management is difficult if you try to run your project or business like a train journey. You have to stay on the fixed rails which lead from start to finish, follow the published timetable, and no deviation is possible. If unexpected events occur (such as fallen trees on the line, or a passenger is taken ill), delay or cancellation are the only options. It would be far better to treat projects and businesses like sailing boats. Their key characteristic is flexibility, the ability to respond quickly to changing circumstances. If the wind blows us off course we can adjust our sails to stay heading towards our goal, and we can even use the wind to assist us on the way. Of course train and boat journeys are just analogies or similes, which must not be stretched too far. But businesses and projects have to operate in changing environments, where it might not be possible or desirable to stick to the original plan. We need built-in flexibility to allow us to alter course rapidly when things around us change. We should not be rigidly restricted to “staying on track” or trying to avoid “coming off the rails”. Instead we should be free to take advantage of change in order to avoid or minimise threats, exploit or maximise opportunities, and so achieve our goal. How can businesses and projects ensure that they remain flexible? This starts with a management mindset and organisational culture that accepts uncertainty and does not demand unthinking adherence to “The Plan”. Good plans should include appropriate levels of contingency or reserve, to respond to emergent threats and opportunities. Processes must allow people to respond to changes as they arise, and should not form a straitjacket that imposes conformity. There must of course be a clear vision and a firm focus on the intended goal. The organisation must also have the ability to know where it is and where it’s heading. Finally people should be empowered to act quickly within clear boundaries of authority and accountability, so that they can act appropriately when things change. So next time someone asks whether your business or project is “on track”, why not reply that you are “navigating towards the goal”, with a clear view of where you are going and a flexible approach to respond to whatever happens along the way. 上週我坐火車到倫敦，我們準時開車、依循固定的路線、途中停靠了幾個預先設定的車站、並且提早了兩分鐘抵達倫敦；我最近也參加了一趟乘船橫越一個小海灣的旅遊，在預備出航時有一點耽誤、然後我們設定好航向出發、但很快就因為風向與潮汐而偏離了航道，我們也必須在橫越時避開其他船隻、其中包括一艘突然快速迎面而來的高速滑艇，索幸我們藉由小心地調整風帆及操縱船隻終得以到達彼岸。我們行經的路徑當然不是一條橫跨海灣的直線，但我們以接近我們所期待的時間到達了預定點（而且我們一路享受著愉悅的時光）。 以上這兩段旅程中，哪一段最能代表你的專案或事業？你是搭火車或是乘船出遊？你是否依據一組計畫及行程、期待能夠如期通過每一個里程碑、並希望在恰如你所規劃的時間（或至少在合理的範圍內）抵達目的地？你的座右銘是否為「規劃工作，然後照表操課」？或者你會受到一些事件或狀況（可預見的及未預期的）的影響、需要在中途改正以確保安全抵達？ 我們大部分的人都認為人生、事業、以及專案並不會遵循一條直線，多數的情況下，我們能夠設定清楚的目標、並且通常能夠規劃一條引領我們抵達的路徑；然而，我們知道相較於我們的完美計畫，現實經常是更不完美的，風險管理便是對此狀態的一種回應，尋求預先辨識在計畫中可能產生變異的來源，然後發展出使我們保持在航道上的適當行動。 然而，就算你想用火車旅行的方式運作你的專案或事業，風險管理也是困難的。你必須要維持在從起點到終點的固定軌道上、依據公告的時間表、且不可以有變動，如果發生了不預期的事件（如樹木倒在軌道上或旅客生病），延誤或取消班次就成為僅有的選項。將專案及事業視為乘船則遠較搭火車為佳，其關鍵特徵在於彈性，即對狀況改變的快速回應能力。如果風將我們吹偏離航道，我們可以調整風帆以保持航向目的地，我們甚至可以運用風力在途中協助我們。 當然，搭火車或乘船旅行只是類比或相似的概念，不可做過度的引伸；但是事業與專案必須要在變動的環境下經營，因此它不可能或不應期待綁死在原來的計畫上，我們必須置入彈性以使得我們可以在周遭發生改變時迅速地調整方向。我們不應該死板地受限於「維持既定軌道」或試圖避免「脫離軌道」，我們反而應該有利用改變的自由，以規避威脅或使之最小化、開拓機會或使之最大化、並因此而達到我們的目的。 要如何確保事業及專案能保有彈性呢？這要從接受不確定性及不要求未經思考地固守著「既定計畫」的管理心態與組織文化開始。好的計畫應該包含有適度的應變準備或預備金，以便於回應突發的威脅或機會。程序上必須允許人員在改變發生時採取回應，並且不能形成強制一致性的約束，當然在希望達成的目的上必須要有清楚的願景與確定的焦點，組織也必須有能力知道其身處何地及欲往何方。最後，應該要授權人員在明確的權責範圍內迅速採取行動，因此它們能在事情改變時採取適當的行動。 所以下一次當有人問到你的事業或專案是否「在既定軌道上」時，何不以你對去向何方及途中不論何事發生皆可以彈性方法回應的清楚視野，回答說你正「導航朝向目的地」。